axmc How axmc compares
A side-by-side of axmc and the other resolvers a prediction market is likely to be pitched, as of October 2026: who decides, how fast an answer is final, and what happens when it is wrong.
axmc runs on Solana devnet and has had no external audit yet. Every axmc figure below comes from the Specification.
Side by side
| Who decides | Undisputed finality | Disputed path | Whale exposure | Pays when wrong | Chains | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMA on Polymarket | A whitelisted proposer posts a bond (The Block); UMA token holders vote on disputes (Polymarket) | About 2 h (Polymarket) | A debate period, then a UMA token-holder (DVM) vote: 4–6 days (Polymarket) | Token-weighted. The top 9 voting wallets held 56% of weight, Sep–Oct 2026 (Bitquery) | Bonds only: a dispute's winner takes half the loser's bond (Polymarket). No compensation fund published | Polygon; UMA also resolves predict.fun on BNB Chain (UMA) |
| Kleros / Reality.eth | Bonded answers, each at least double the last; anyone may pay an arbitrator such as Kleros to rule (Reality.eth) | A timeout set per question (Reality.eth) | Kleros jurors, with appeals: several days (Interexy) | Draw odds proportional to staked PNK (Kleros); PNK market cap about $7.6M (Wellfound) | Bonds and fees only. No compensation fund published | Ethereum, Gnosis, Arbitrum, Rootstock (Kleros) |
| Chainlink Data Streams + CRE | An oracle network reading a data feed, "rather than through human panels or token-holder votes" (The Defiant) | Under 5 min (Crypto Briefing) | None documented; questions a feed can answer | None: nobody votes | No compensation fund published | Many, Solana and EVM included (The Defiant) |
| Cournot | Three separately staked AI agents: collector, auditor, judge (cournot.ai) | Median under 8 min, self-reported, over 6,405 resolutions to 2026-10-14 (cournot.ai) | Anyone bonds and re-runs a claim; the role at fault is slashed; no vote. Window not published (cournot.ai) | No vote. Token and node requirements "to be announced" (cournot.ai) | Slashing of the faulty role. No compensation fund published | Base, BNB Chain (cournot.ai) |
| GenLayer | 5 random validators, each running its own LLM (MetaMask) | A 30 min window. Pre-mainnet testnet; mainnet targeted for Q4 2026 (MetaMask) | Each appeal doubles the validator set, up to 1,534 (MetaMask) | Delegated proof of stake, with slashing (GenLayer) | No compensation fund published | Its own chain, anchored to Ethereum via zkSync (GenLayer) |
| Kalshi, in-house | Kalshi's markets team, against CFTC-filed source agencies; its Outcome Review Committee is binding (DeFi Rate) | Determination 1–12+ h after close, settlement about 3 h later (OddsShopper) | A formal review, concluded within 24 h (OddsShopper) | None: nobody votes | Its rulebook; an unresolvable market may settle at the last traded price (DeFi Rate). No compensation fund published | Off chain; tokenized on Solana through DFlow (The Block) |
| axmc | A bonded proposer, or the market's committed AI judge signing with its committed key. A staked court of sampled jurors on dispute. Once a court is wired, the admin cannot rule | 2 h (T0) to 48 h (T4); about 50 min on T0 with three bonded co-signers (Specification) | A panel of 7 or 11 jurors, then a grand panel of 15 fresh jurors; two thirds of seats decide. About 2.5 days a rung. A round nobody draws ends Unresolvable after 5 days, and the market refunds at par (Specification) |
Drawn by √stake, each identity capped at 5% of pool weight. One identity with half the stake took 0 of 2,000 first panels in simulation (Why the biggest holder loses anyway) | Bonds, plus one correction within 7 days on a 20,000 USDC petition, paid from an insurance fund up to 2% of the fund and never more than the question's open interest | Solana. Receipts to Base, BNB Chain and Arbitrum over Wormhole, tested locally and on testnet forks only (The EVM spoke) |
Competitor figures are as each source published them; self-reported ones say so. If a line here is wrong, tell us at axmc.xyz/contact.
Which questions belong where
| The question | Belongs with | Because |
|---|---|---|
| A price, rate or index at a time | A feed: Chainlink, or Pyth (The Block) | Minutes, and nothing to judge. axmc's shortest window is longer |
| A score or result a licensed data provider publishes | A feed or the official data | The same |
| An event a source reports, in words that can be argued: "signed", "announced", "cancelled" | axmc | A judge committed before trading answers; a bonded court hears a challenge |
| A question no feed covers: a regional event, a creator's market | axmc | Anyone may answer with a bond, and a bond is what it costs to say otherwise |
| A market that may void and must say why | axmc | Every final answer carries a cause code, one of eight, on Solana and on the EVM spoke (The receipt on the wire) |
| A disputed number (a scalar answer) | Not axmc, for now | The court hears categorical questions only; a disputed scalar ends Unresolvable |
What axmc does not do yet
- Mainnet. It runs on Solana devnet only, so no fund holds real money.
- An external audit. None yet. It is an open item before mainnet.
- Fast finality. An undisputed answer takes 2 to 48 hours, or about 50 minutes on T0 with three co-signers. A feed is faster, and so is Cournot's reported median.
- Agent jurors. The agent bench is off until governance turns it on, so every dispute today goes to human panels at about 2.5 days a rung.
- Proof that the judge ran. The chain checks that a judged answer is signed by the committed key, not that the committed model, prompt and sources produced it.
- Full compensation. A claim is capped at 2% of the fund and at the question's open interest, and a correction does not claw back what the wrong answer paid (Threat model).
- The EVM spoke on a public chain. The receipt emitter is not on devnet and no spoke is deployed on a public testnet. Receipts trust Wormhole's guardians (The EVM spoke).
- Hands-off governance. The admin key sets every parameter and approves each venue. On devnet one deployer wallet is both admin and upgrade authority; the move to a multisig has not happened yet.
Source: docs/COMPARE.md in the axmc repo. Edit the file; the next deploy rebuilds this page.